Survey research is based on the idea that the only way to find out about real people is to talk to real people. Surveys collect data about how folks live and what they think across a wide range of issues, including election polling, market research, evaluation of government programs and rates of disease and crime.
Such studies provide information crucial to informed policymaking. Survey and poll results are reported by media, cited by advocates, relied on by legislators and used by planners. A lot of accepted facts are actually based on surveys, such as the national unemployment rate issued on the first Friday of every month.
The goal of most surveys is to have a sample that is representative of the population of interest, whether the survey is of registered voters, professionals in a given field, the adult residents of the state or a specific demographic group such as new parents or elders.
Surveys are conducted through various methods: mail, phone, web, in person or a combination of those. Each mode has its strengths and weak points. In-person surveys provide extra legitimacy but present logistical hurdles. Mail surveys yield good response but may be expensive and there is no way to verify whether a participant understood the questions. Telephone surveys allow a social interaction and permit an interviewer to ensure that the person gives a valid answer to each question, but many people are suspicious of phone calls. Web surveys eliminate the need for data entry but often have a low rate of response because of bad email addresses and technical glitches; it can also be difficult to get a representative sample to conduct a general population survey via the web.
The challenges of survey research are ever-shifting as technology evolves and society changes. While random-digit dialing telephone surveys were the industry standard in past decades, newer strategies have been developed in response to increasing rates of cell-phone only households — 39.7 percent of Florida adults at last count by the National Center for Health Statistics.
The University of Florida Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research conducts surveys of all types. One of our UFSRC showcase surveys produces the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index, which we have been releasing monthly since 1983.
Consumer sentiment numbers have historically been good predictors of consumer spending for the next three to six months. That is no small matter, because consumer spending is about 70 percent of the U.S. economy. It can be a self-fulfilling statistic, because if consumers are nervous, then companies may cut back on production, hours and hiring. Consumers see those cutbacks and become even more worried. However, this phenomenon also works in reverse and can speed up an economic recovery or expansion.
A minimum of 500 households in Florida are interviewed by phone each month for the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index survey. Survey length is typically twelve minutes, conducted in either English or Spanish. Once we reach a household, we select a household member to participate from all the adults living there, in order to ensure that people of all ages and genders are represented. All of our phone calls are recorded, and a percentage of the live interviews and recordings is evaluated to ensure consistent quality. Our interviewers receive rigorous training and must meet and maintain standards of productivity.
Survey participants are asked two questions about current financial conditions and three questions about future expectations. These same five questions are asked monthly by the University of Michigan in a national consumer sentiment telephone survey. The Conference Board also measures consumer confidence nationally through a mail survey on a monthly basis.
At UFSRC, additional questions about the economy and other topics can be included as well for UF researchers who have just a few items to ask of a statewide sample. In the spring of 2013, UFSRC partnered with the Bob Graham Center for Public Service to ask some items about bills facing the state legislative session. The press release they produced on the texting-and-driving legislation was particularly widely reported, and influenced the statewide conversation on that issue.
