352-273-2598 ashleynmcleod@ufl.edu

Natural Resources: Conservation & Management

Ecological and Economic Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Coastal Food Webs and Fisheries

About the Project

Project Lead: Mike Allen
Project Participants: David Chagaris, Christa Court, Wendy Graham, Kelly Grogan, Holden Harris, David Kaplan, Angela Lindsey, Nathan Reaver, Brett Scheffers, Ricky Telg, Olesya Savchenko
Funded by: National Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine

Effective management of coupled human-natural systems in the Gulf of Mexico will require integrated approaches that consider landscape-level human-induced stressors (e.g., watershed land and water use) along with changes in temperature, precipitation, and species distributions resulting from a changing climate. These coupled impacts will ultimately influence the ecological quality and economic value of coastal ecosystem services such as fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism. This interdisciplinary project includes four integrated objectives to evaluate how basin-wide changes in land/water use and a changing climate will influence the quality of natural resources in the Suwannee River estuary, which supports several imperiled species alongside a multimillion-dollar fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism economy. Development of a landscape-level watershed model of the Suwannee River basin (Objective 1) will quantify how changes in land/water use and future climate/weather patterns will influence freshwater quantity and quality delivered to the estuary. Results from the watershed model will inform a trophic- dynamic food web model (Objective 2) to explore how changes in freshwater quality/quantity coupled with changes in climate and species distribution will influence fish and shellfish populations that are important to fisheries, aquaculture and tourism. The project will then develop stated-preference economic surveys to evaluate the economic implications of each future scenario on ecosystem services and coastal communities (Objective 3). Throughout the project, we will integrate results with social science and management actions using a set of public focus groups, webinars, and a public workshop (Objective 4). The project has broad support among partnering state and federal management agencies and represents a comprehensive approach to basin-scale challenges facing natural resource management. This project is poised as an example to illuminate management options for coupled human-natural systems where watershed impacts and climate change threaten the quality of natural resources.